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Russia – war speculation, prospects

Russia – war speculation, prospects

Mayıs 9, 2022 11:15
Russia – war speculation, prospects



War speculations… Since the first formation of the Ukrainian conflict and the transition to the stage of hot conflict, it was predicted that Russia would end the war in a short time with a quick operation. Since the situation on the field did not turn out to be very favorable, Russia was not in a position to declare victory. That makes it unlikely that on May 9 (the Victory Day Russia celebrates as a national holiday), Putin will announce that the war is over. Putin would probably make such a statement by declaring that they have won the war, but there is no victory.


Russian possibilities… May 9, 1945, the date when the German army accepted the surrender agreement that ended the Second World War. In other words, the day when Stalin’s Russia was victorious. Due to the symbolic significance of the day, it was thought that Putin would make a similar crowning in the early stages of the war. Conversely, there are speculations that, given the military failure in Ukraine, Putin could take things a step further on May 9 and beyond.


One of these; just like in Crimea, Russia’s declaration of annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk or holding a pro-independence referendum there. Due to the developments in Crimea in 2014, it is highly probable. The independence referendum, and then the decision of de-facto independent regions to join Russia is a way that has been adapted to the book in terms of international law, exactly the same way was followed in Crimea.


Russia, by its own definition, is not at war, but is conducting special operations to protect ethnic Russians. What happens in practice is, of course, a hot war as an invasion movement. It is also considered possible that Russia will formalize its declaration of war. Russia, on the other hand, described speculations that it will declare all-out war on Ukraine in the coming days as “absurd”. In contrast, an escalation of military action on May 9 here in Kiev, Odessa, Mariupol and other cities is considered likely. While military operations leave Russia and Ukraine alone on the ground, a declaration of war causes defense agreements, pacts or secret agreements to come into play.


International legal ground… Criminalization of aggression has a recent origin Aggression, or crime against peace, is the planning, initiation or conduct of a large-scale and serious act of aggression using the military power of the state. Moscow has so far denied it was at war, instead calling the invasion a “special military operation”. Russian officials describe the invasion as a “special military operation” solely to “demilitarize” or “de-Nazi” the country, citing an allegation about the Nazis in the Ukrainian government that Moscow used to justify the invasion. After Germany’s occupation of the Soviet Union during the Second World War, the Nuremberg trials and the Tokyo trials were judged by the officials of the defeated states as crimes against aggression and peace. Before or since the 1940s, no one has been prosecuted for aggression under this definition of crime.


Conclusion? While Russia does not call the situation in Ukraine war, the official declaration of war will put this into official procedure on paper. The situation of many neighboring countries, NATO pact, Russia’s strategic partners will be affected by this, and in this case, since the principle of neutrality will come into play, many countries will have to try harder to maintain their position. China is one of these countries, it seems to be acting together with Russia, because it is important for Russia’s actions to be on legitimate grounds in terms of its own regional interests and planned actions. At this point, although it maintains a complete balance, it avoids any sharp rhetoric and action to openly ally with or oppose Russia.

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