We followed closely the statements of Putin, who made a speech on the Russian Victory Day. In his speech on Red Square, Putin described the Ukrainian war as a war similar to the one waged against Nazi Germany with the aim of justifying it.
Highlights from Putin’s statement;
You are fighting for the country, for the future, so that no one forgets the lessons of the Second World War, so that there is no place for executioners, oppressors and Nazis.
Putin stressed that conflict with Ukraine and North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries was “inevitable” and claimed that it was in response to preparations to attack Russian separatist-controlled Donbas and invade the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea annexed by the Kremlin.
Putin said that Russia is fighting “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine. (Both of these articles are strongly rejected by Ukraine.)
If we look at what would have happened if Putin had declared mobilization;
Since Russia is a major natural gas and oil exporter, this decision may cause spikes in Brent oil and natural gas prices.
Precious metals may increase due to the safe haven feature. As Russia is one of the world’s largest palladium producers, palladium prices may show a more drastic move.
Escape from risky vehicles may increase. (Equity, crypto)
People may turn to bonds because they find it more reliable. For this reason, retracements can be observed in bond yields.
Freight prices and logistics costs will likely tend to increase due to unpredictability. As this will have an impact on inflation, recession or even stagflation will become inevitable.
US declaration of war: (1812-England, 1846-Mexico, 1898-Spain, 1917-WW1, 1941-WW2).. Source: https://www.senate.gov/
In terms of setting a precedent for mobilization and predicting a possible US-Russia conflict;
As we can see in the image above, the United States Congress has declared war 5 times. For the United States, the First Amendment, Section Eight, of the Constitution states that “Congress shall have the power to declare war.”
We do not expect the US to declare war on Russia. We do not think that the Biden government, which is currently struggling with inflation, will enter a state of war. This situation will not find a public response.